It’s too early for prognostications

Posted Friday, 14 February 2020 ‐ Las Vegas Sun

In the Jan. 31 letter “Trump warps his followers,” the writer claimed that “By this time next year, we will have rid ourselves of a parasitic pest and his snake-pit administration.” With eight months before this year’s election, and without knowing who President Donald Trump’s opponent is, we don’t have a crystallized picture of the outcome. Here are some facts:  In the past 30 years, only two presidents won by more than 4 percentage points, and both were special cases. President Bill Clinton’s win was convoluted by Ross Perot’s third-party candidacy, and President Barack Obama’s victory in 2008 came amid the global economic meltdown. The Democratic Party’s presidential nominee is unlikely to be identified until spring, if then — after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and the Super Tuesday primaries and California. Making a political prediction about the election outcome now is a wish and a prayer.

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